PRODUCT LISTS
| Vinyl acetate to improve the economy, concern abou |
| event: Since 2014 overseas vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) prices appear to rise sharply, the Western European FOB price by 2013 at the end of the year of 1 075 euros / ton rose to the highest 2285 euros / ton, although somewhat fall to 2082 euros / ton, but the increase is still nearly double. Over the same period the United States Gulf FOB prices from $920 / ton up to the current $1700 / ton. comment: Part of the device shut down or stop production caused by vinyl acetate prices rose. Affected by the impact of environmental factors, October and December 2013, Ineos and Celanese has closed in Britain and Spain VAM device, the two sets of device for total capacity of 50 million tons / year and accounts for about production capacity in Western Europe and 50% of the global production capacity (780 million tons) of 7%. After the closure of the two sets of devices, Germany became the only country in Western Europe to produce VAM. Entered in 2014, the United States Serra nice 300 thousand tons / year VAM unit in Texas in the first quarter of the two months of continuous maintenance and power outages. DuPont in March in Texas 33.5 million tons / year plant encounters Force Majeure production, is expected to continue until June, in addition to the Basel 40 million tons / tons of VAM device also announced on March 13, encounter not resistance. These factors lead to the vinyl acetate also appeared reduced supply (it is reported that the United States in the first quarter of vinyl acetate production in the same period last year decreased by 15%), further exacerbated the tight global supplies. Domestic acetic acid ethylene exports surge since March 2014. 2014q1 domestic ethylene acetate exports of 2655 tons, compared with the same period last year increased by 36.4%, and in April exports further increased to nearly 1.5 million tons; view of gender, January to April this year, the domestic products of export concentration in Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and other Western European countries. Despite the impact of logistics, REACH regulations and other restrictions, the current domestic exports to Europe, there is still a large space. 2013 domestic acetic acid ethylene production capacity of 2.965 million tons, production was 118.6 million tons, but because of the past few years the industry downturn, the domestic part of the backward production capacity has quit and environmental requirements tighter background under part of the production capacity limited started, we determine the domestic ethylene acetate actual excess degree was significantly lower than the level, the overseas product prices will contribute to improve the domestic industry boom. At present, the domestic acetic acid ethylene prices have been driven by the export of a certain rise, the market price level has increased significantly compared to the year. Vinyl prices are expected to remain strong, the proposals concern wanwei. We judge overseas vinyl prices are still expected to remain strong, although DuPont plant shut down the resumption of production is possible, but the next 1-2 quarter Asia still has more device into the maintenance cycle, coupled with capacity in Europe permanently retired, industry tight supply situation is expected to continue, product price is expected to maintain strong, positive domestic production enterprises. Domestic production enterprises, although most of the acetate ethylene production capacity is matched with the middle and lower reaches of the polyvinyl alcohol (PVA), but due to the production process of non continuous, enterprises can in acetic acid ethylene prices higher, reducing downstream link load, thereby increasing the vinyl acetate takeaway ratio; listed companies, wanwei high has 50 million tons of acetic acid ethylene production capacity (including Chaohu company headquarters and Inner Mongolia, Guangxi subsidiary), vinyl acetate fold enhance of its performance has obvious role in promoting, the proposed attention. Risk warning: decline in downstream demand risk, the risk of a sharp decline in crude oil prices. |